Field Poll Record in Measuring Top-of-the-Ticket Candidate Elections in California

Throughout its history The Field Poll has tracked voter preferences in all major statewide elections in California since 1948.

The following is a review of all 53 elections for President, Governor and U.S. Senator between 1948 and 2008 and compares The Field Poll's final pre-election results for the major party candidates to the actual share of the vote each received, excluding undecideds and minor party candidates. This comparison shows

  • In 49 of these 53 top-of-the-ticket races in California, the candidate leading in the final pre-election Field Poll won the election. This includes one race where the major party candidates were tied.

  • More recently, the candidate leading in the final pre-election Field Poll has won election in all 23 of the 23 top-of-the-ticket election contests in California since 1984.

  • The average deviation between The Field Poll's final pre-election poll for the major party candidates and the actual two-party distribution of the vote for the winning candidate across all 53 top-of-the-ticket election contests since 1948 has been 2.2 percentage points.

  • Since 1984 the average deviation between the actual percentage vote for the winning candidate and his/her support in our final poll has been just 1.5 percentage points.
 
 
Final Pre-Election Estimates of The Field (California) Poll
vs. Actual Election Outcomes (1948-present)
 
Year Office Major Party Candidates Actual
Vote
%
Dem/Rep/1		 Field Poll
Final
Report
%
Dem/Rep/2		 %
Deviation
for Winning
Candidate		 Leading
Candidate
Wins
Democrat Republican
 
2008 Pres. Obama McCain 62-38 62-38 0 Yes
2006 Gov. Angelides Schwarzenegger 41-59 40-60 1 Yes
2006 Sen. Feinstein Mountjoy 63-37 63-37 0 Yes
2004 Pres. Kerry Bush 55-45 54-46 1 Yes
2004 Sen. Boxer Jones 60-40 61-39 1 Yes
2003 Gov.+ Bustamante Schwarzenegger 39-61 42-58 3 Yes
2002 Gov. Davis Simon 53-47 55-45 2 Yes
2000 Pres. Gore Bush 56-44 53-47 3 Yes
2000 Sen. Feinstein Campbell 61-39 62-38 1 Yes
1998 Gov. Davis Lungren 60-40 58-42 2 Yes
1998 Sen. Boxer Fong 55-45 55-45 0 Yes
1996 Pres. Clinton Dole-(Perot) 53-40-(7) 52-40-(8) 1 Yes
1994 Gov. K. Brown Wilson 42-58 45-55 3 Yes
1994 Sen. Feinstein Huffington 51-49 54-46 3 Yes
1992 Sen. Feinstein Seymour 59-41 58-42 1 Yes
1992 Sen. Boxer Hershchensohn 53-47 51-49 2 Yes
1992 Pres. Clinton Bush-(Perot) 46-33-(21) 46-30-(24) 0 Yes
1990 Gov. Feinstein Wilson 48-52 45-55 3 Yes
1988 Sen. McCarthy Wilson 45-55 42-58 3 Yes
1988 Pres. Dukakis Bush 48-52 47-53 1 Yes
1986 Sen. Cranston Zschau 51-49 51-49 0 Yes
1986 Gov. Bradley Deukmejian 38-62 40-60 2 Yes
1984 Pres. Mondale Reagan 42-58 41-59 1 Yes
1982 Sen. Brown, Jr. Wilson 47-53 47-53 0 Yes
1982 Gov. Bradley Deukmejian 49-51 54-46 5 No
1980 Sen. Cranston Gann 60-40 65-35 5 Yes
1980 Pres. Carter Reagan 41-59 45-55 4 Yes
1978 Gov. Brown, Jr. Younger 61-39 63-37 2 Yes
1976 Sen. Tunney Hayakawa 48-52 51-49 3 No
1976 Pres. Carter Ford 49-51 47-53 2 Yes
1974 Sen. Cranson Richardson 63-37 70-30 7 Yes
1974 Gov. Brown, Jr. Flournoy 52-48 55-45 3 Yes
1972 Pres. McGovern    Nixon 43-57 42-58 1 Yes
1970 Sen. Tunney Murphy 55-45 54-46 1 Yes
1970 Gov. Unruh Reagan 46-54 43-57 3 Yes
1968 Sen. Cranston Rafferty 53-47 54-46 1 Yes
1968 Pres. Humphrey Nixon-(Wallace) 48-52-(7) 39-61-(9) 9 Yes
1966 Gov. Brown, Sr. Reagan 42-58 47-53 5 Yes
1964 Sen. Salinger Murphy 48-52 50-50 2 Yes*
1964 Pres. Johnson Goldwater 59-41 64-36 5 Yes
1962 Sen. Richards Kuchel 44-56 40-60 4 Yes
1962 Gov. Brown, Sr. Nixon 53-47 54-46 1 Yes
1960 Pres. Kennedy Nixon 50-50/3 51-49 1 No
1958 Sen. Engle Knight 57-43 56-44 1 Yes
1958 Gov. Brown, Sr. Knowland 60-40 62-38 2 Yes
1956 Sen Richards Kuchel 46-54 49-51 3 Yes
1956 Pres. Stevenson Eisenhower 44-56 45-55 1 Yes
1954 Sen. Yorty Kuchel 46-54 48-52 2 Yes
1954 Gov. Graves Knight 43-57 43-57 0 Yes
1952 Pres. Stevenson Eisenhower 43-57 47-53 4 Yes
1950 Sen. Douglas Nixon 41-59 43-57 2 Yes
1950 Gov. Roosevelt Warren 35-65 33-67 2 Yes
1948 Pres. Truman Dewey 50-50/4 47-53 3 No
      Average Deviation   (1948-2008) 2.2 Yes: 49
      (1984-2008) 1.5 No: 4
 
 
(1) Vote totals repercentaged to exclude minor party candidates.
(2) Poll estimates repercentaged to exclude "undecideds" and minor party candidates.
(3) Actual two-party vote percentages in 1960 Presidential election in California was 50.3 Nixon and 49.7 Kennedy.
(4) Actual two-party vote percentages in 1948 Presidential election in California was 50.2 Truman and 49.8 Dewey.
+ Special gubernatorial recall election.
* Leading candidate tied for lead in final pre-election poll.
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