The Field Poll's Record in Measuring Statewide Ballot Propositions in California (1994 - Present)

The table following compares election outcomes on all statewide propositions elections in California since November 1994 covered by The Field Poll to the poll's initial and final pre-election measurements. A total of 101 salient ballot propositions were tracked by the poll for its media clients during this period.

Comparing the FINAL pre-election Field Poll and proposition election outcomes

The final pre-election Field Poll, typically completed within one week of the election, has been an excellent predictor of election outcomes. When examining the 101 proposition contests covered by The Field Poll during this period, the poll's final published results were consistent with the election outcome 92 times, or 91% of the time. (Note: This includes one contest in which the final poll showed the proposition tied, but trending downward, and which was ultimately defeated on Election Day.)

Comparing the INITIAL pre-election Field Poll to proposition election outcomes

Comparisons between the outcome of these 101 propositions to their standing in the initial Field Poll measurement, typically conducted two to four months prior to the election, show the following:

• Sixty-seven of the 101 propositions measured by The Field Poll started out with a statistically significant lead in the poll's initial survey of voters. Of these, 40, or 60%, were ultimately approved by voters on Election Day.

• The remaining 34 of the 101 propositions either trailed in the poll's initial measurement (22 cases) or were statistically tied (12 cases). Of the 12 cases which were statistically tied, 5, or 42%, were approved by voters in the election. Of the 22 cases trailing by a statistically significant margin, just 3, or 14%, were approved by voters in the election.